May 14th 2007

At the moment I'm lucky enough to have unrestricted access to a local farm where I am doing a pond survey. Whilst walking around the fields the difference between Ash and Oak leaf development this year has been striking.

Now a lot of foliage is much earlier than you would expect, as widely reported in the media:
Bluebells are finishing early, May blossom was a couple of weeks early and Lords and Ladies flowers are already dying.
Oak trees all around my home area and all over the farm are already in full leaf, doing extremely well and looking very healthy. The Ash trees however are looking very poor indeed, buds only just bursting and taking a long while to get to full leaf.

However it seems to be more serious than that, many trees on the farm, have buds and twigs that appear to be dead, the canopy seeming to have only 50% or so of the buds that are showing any signs of life.

Is this the same all over the county?

The old weather soar says:
"If the oaks before the ash,
you'll only have a splash,
if the ash is 'fore the oak,
you're in for a soak."

So, if the oak buds appeared first, the summer would be dry. If the ash appeared first, we were in for a damp summer. According to the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology back in the early years of their records (in the 18th century) Ash won the Spring bud race 40% of the time. Oak now wins 90% of the time.

Ash has shallower roots and so the oak does much better in drier conditions. In addition, the ash will lose out in a wood or slightly less so in a hedgerow, as the oak leaves, which have matured earlier, can then get more sun and use up more of the available water.

So will ash trees be dying this year? How are the trees in your area doing? Why not add a comment to this article and let us know.

Ilex